Conference Play begins Across the Stateline

By Brad Wilson, Stateline Gazette

Conference play arrives this week with the league’s hierarchy beginning to take real shape. Blowouts have defined the early season, but Week 4 brings matchups where familiarity, margins, and matchups matter more than raw firepower. For contenders, this is where separation starts. For others, it’s already about survival.

Here is your full Week 4 Preview, with context, numbers, and what to watch as league play officially opens.

Tulane at North Texas

Line: North Texas –4.5 | Total: 66.5

North Texas opens conference play at home against a Tulane team still riding the emotional high of last week’s walk-off win over San Diego State. The Green Wave sit at 1–2, but their résumé includes a 48–45 stunner that flipped the league narrative in one snap.

Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff (757 yards, 8 TDs) continues to push the ball vertically, while running back Javin Gordon exploded for 232 yards and four touchdowns last week.

Tulane averages 37.0 points per game but also allows a league-worst 51.0, a concern against one of the league’s most aggressive offenses.

North Texas (2–1) has scored 45.0 points per game behind Drew Mestemaker (997 yards, 11 TDs) and receiver Wyatt Young (349 yards). The Mean Green lost a 56–49 shootout to SDSU but rebounded with a 45–42 win over Memphis, showing resilience that matters in conference play.

Key trend: North Texas averages 532.3 yards per game and is 2–0 at home. Tulane has allowed more than 530 yards per game defensively.

Prediction: North Texas 38, Tulane 34

Prop Bet: Wyatt Young over 95.5 receiving yards

UTSA at Temple

Line: UTSA –17.5 | Total: 61.5

UTSA begins league play on the road, needing traction after a 1–2 start that includes losses to Boise State and UNLV by a combined 77 points. The Roadrunners still boast one of the league’s most productive passing games behind Owen McCown (1,128 yards, 12 TDs), though turnovers (7 INTs) remain an issue.

Temple (0–3) continues to search for answers. The Owls are averaging just 22.7 points per game and have yet to hold an opponent under 34. Quarterback Evan Simon has thrown for 485 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions, while the defense has allowed 417 yards per game.

UTSA receiver Wille McCoy leads the league in receiving touchdowns (7) and faces a Temple secondary that has surrendered explosive plays weekly.

Key trend: Temple is 0–3 with a –405 yardage differential.

Prediction: UTSA 41, Temple 24

Prop Bet: Wille McCoy anytime touchdown

Toledo at USF

Line: Toledo –27 | Total: 54

Toledo enters conference play quietly at 2–1, relying on balance and discipline rather than fireworks. The Rockets average 24.3 points per game but allow just 23.0, keeping games controlled. Quarterback Tucker Gleason (833 yards, 7 TDs) has been efficient, and the defense has consistently forced opponents into long, mistake-prone drives.

USF (0–3) has been overwhelmed through the first three weeks. The Bulls are scoring just 11.3 points per game and have committed 12 interceptions, the most in the league. Byrum Brown has thrown 11 picks and now faces a Toledo defense built to capitalize on poor decisions and stalled possessions.

The matchup sets up as a contrast in styles — Toledo’s patience and field control against a USF offense still searching for stability.

Key trend: USF owns the league’s worst yardage differential (–571) and has yet to score more than 17 points in a game.

Prediction: Toledo 35, USF 10

Prop Bet: Byrum Brown over 1.5 interceptions

Memphis at Boise State

Line: Boise State –28.5 | Total: 72

The league’s measuring stick opens conference play at home. Boise State (3–0) has scored 217 points in three games, averaging a staggering 72.3 points per contest. Quarterback Maddux Madsen (1,253 yards, 19 TDs) leads the Heisman race, and the Broncos have outgained opponents by more than 170 yards per game.

Memphis (2–1) can score, averaging 35.7 points, but the Tigers gave up 45 points to North Texas and now face the league’s most efficient offense. Brendon Lewis has yet to throw an interception, but Boise’s depth and pace present a different challenge.

Boise is coming off a 77–10 win over USF and has yet to play a fourth quarter of consequence this season.

Key trend: Boise has covered every spread this season by double digits.

Prediction: Boise State 49, Memphis 28

Prop Bet: Maddux Madsen over 4.5 total touchdowns

Hawaii at UConn

Line: Hawaii –14.5 | Total: 62

Hawaii (2–1) enters conference play with one of the league’s most balanced attacks. Quarterback Micah Alejado has thrown for 1,021 yards and added five rushing touchdowns, while the Warriors allow just 297 yards per game defensively.

UConn (1–2) has been competitive, holding opponents to 23.3 points per game, but struggles to sustain offense. Joe Fagnano has four touchdowns and four interceptions, while Cam Edwards leads the Huskies with 316 rushing yards and five scores.

Hawaii’s speed on the perimeter and efficiency in the red zone give the Warriors a clear edge.

Key trend: Hawaii is +384 in total yardage differential, second in the league.

Prediction: Hawaii 35, UConn 21

Prop Bet: Micah Alejado over 275.5 total yards

San Diego State at UNLV

Line: San Diego State –3 | Total: 70

The marquee conference opener features two teams comfortable in chaos. San Diego State (2–1) averages 48.7 points per game behind Lucky Sutton, who leads the league with 564 rushing yards. Despite last week’s loss to Tulane, the Aztecs remain one of the league’s most explosive teams.

UNLV (2–1) counters with Alex Orji, a dual-threat quarterback with 640 passing yards and 201 rushing yards, and receiver Var’Keyes Gumms, who has five touchdowns on just 17 catches.

Both defenses allow more than 39 points per game, setting the stage for a possession-by-possession shootout.

Key trend: Each team has played a one-score game in every week so far.

Prediction: San Diego State 42, UNLV 39

Prop Bet: Lucky Sutton over 110.5 rushing yards

Week 4 Outlook

Conference play strips away early-season illusions. Boise State and Hawaii look ready to assert control, while North Texas and San Diego State attempt to keep pace. For Tulane, UTSA, and UNLV, Week 4 offers a chance to reshape the narrative.

By Sunday morning, the standings will finally mean something.