North Texas Survives Late Toledo Surge, Seizes Control of East Division Race

Kyle Craig, The Stateline Gazette

TOLEDO — North Texas didn’t need style points. It needed the result — and it got it.

The Mean Green built a commanding first-half lead and withstood a furious Toledo rally to defeat No. 3 Toledo 31–28 on Monday night, a win that may ultimately decide the East Division race in the Stateline Conference.

North Texas improved to 5–2 overall and 3–1 in division play, pulling even with Toledo in the standings while owning the head-to-head tiebreaker. Toledo fell to 5–2 (3–1), turning the final week of the regular season into a must-win scenario.

“This was about toughness and belief,” North Texas coach Matt Cummings said. “We knew if we could control the game early, we could make it uncomfortable late. Our guys embraced that.”

Fast start, just enough finish

North Texas stunned the home crowd with four touchdowns on its first five possessions, leaning on a punishing run game and near-perfect efficiency. The Mean Green led 14–7 after one quarter and stretched the advantage to 28–14 by halftime.

Running back Caleb Hawkins set the tone, rushing for 155 yards and three touchdowns on 15 carries. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker complemented the ground attack with timely scrambles and mistake-free passing, completing 11 of 16 throws for 99 yards while adding 49 rushing yards.

Despite being outgained overall, North Texas capitalized in the red zone and protected the football, finishing the night with four rushing touchdowns.

“We weren’t trying to win a track meet,” Cummings said. “We wanted to shorten the game, win the red zone, and protect the football.”

Toledo rallies, but comes up short

Toledo controlled much of the second half behind quarterback Tucker Gleason, who carved up the North Texas secondary for 342 passing yards and three touchdowns. The Rockets outgained North Texas 457–317, dominated time of possession, and steadily erased the deficit.

Junior Vandeross III hauled in nine passes for 138 yards and a touchdown, while tight end Jacob Peterson added two scoring receptions as Toledo closed within three points late.

But with the game on the line, the North Texas defense delivered its biggest stop of the night, forcing a turnover on downs in the final minutes to seal the upset.

“That’s a championship-caliber team,” Cummings said of Toledo. “They made us earn every inch. Our defense bent, but it didn’t break when it mattered.”

Playoff and division implications

The result dramatically reshapes the East Division picture.

North Texas now controls its own destiny and can clinch the division title with a win at Temple in Week 8. Toledo must defeat UTSA and hope for a North Texas loss to reclaim the top spot.

Beyond the division race, the loss significantly tightens the battle for a top-four seed and first-round bye.

“This one hurts,” Toledo coach Tyler Holjes said. “We dug ourselves a hole early. I’m proud of the fight, but we didn’t do enough in the first half.”

Bottom line

North Texas didn’t dominate the stat sheet, but it dominated the moments that mattered most.

Behind a bruising run game, disciplined execution, and one final defensive stand, the Mean Green turned a hostile road environment into a season-defining victory — one that may ultimately decide the East Division.

Team statistics

North Texas: 

317 total yards

Rushing: 25 carries, 218 yards, 4 TDs

Passing: 11-of-16, 99 yards

Toledo: 

457 total yards

Rushing: 26 carries, 115 yards, 1 TD

Passing: 33-of-43, 342 yards, 3 TDs

Individual statistics

Passing

North Texas: Drew Mestemaker 11-16, 99 yards

Toledo: Tucker Gleason 33-43, 342 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Rushing

North Texas: Caleb Hawkins 15 carries, 155 yards, 3 TDs; Drew Mestemaker 8 carries, 49 yards; Quardell Jackson 2 carries, 14 yards, TD

Toledo: Chip Trayanum 9 carries, 40 yards, TD; Kenji Christian 6 carries, 18 yards

Receiving

North Texas: Wyatt Young 5 receptions, 50 yards; Miles Coleman 2 receptions, 25 yards; Caleb Dorner 1 reception, 11 yards; Tre Williams III 1 reception, 5 yardsT

oledo: Junior Vandeross III 9 receptions, 138 yards, TD; Eric Holley III 7 receptions, 71 yards; Jacob Peterson 5 receptions, 47 yards, 2 TDs; Chip Trayanum 7 receptions, 50 yards; Kenji Christian 3 receptions, 17 yards